China’s economy expanded by 5.0 percent in 2025, meeting the government’s official growth target despite rising pressures at home and abroad and confirming the country’s ability to navigate a complex global environment.
Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that gross domestic product grew in line with Beijing’s goal of “around 5 percent,” marking a symbolic achievement as the country concluded its 14th Five-Year Plan. The size of the economy surpassed 140 trillion yuan (about 20 trillion US dollars) for the first time, underlining China’s scale even as growth drivers became increasingly uneven.
Exports emerged as the main pillar of support. In a year marked by heightened trade tensions and new tariffs, particularly from the United States, China’s manufacturers successfully diversified markets, expanding shipments to Europe, Southeast Asia and other regions. This helped push the trade surplus to record levels and offset weak domestic demand.
While exports remained resilient, conditions at home were more fragile. Retail sales grew only modestly, reflecting cautious consumer spending, while fixed-asset investment declined as business confidence softened. The property sector continued to drag on the broader economy, with investment falling sharply amid a prolonged housing downturn.
Growth also slowed toward the end of the year. Fourth-quarter GDP expanded by 4.5 percent, the weakest quarterly pace in several years, highlighting the economy’s increasing reliance on external demand as domestic engines lost momentum. Manufacturing linked to exports held up relatively well, while the services sector showed resilience despite softer overall activity.
Throughout 2025, Beijing pursued a careful policy balance, supporting growth while guarding against rising debt and financial risks. Targeted measures were introduced to boost technology, infrastructure and selected areas of consumption, including incentives for automobiles and durable goods. At the same time, authorities avoided large-scale stimulus, signaling a preference for “high-quality growth” driven by innovation, advanced manufacturing, and sustainable investment.
Looking ahead to the 15th Five-Year Plan period beginning in 2026, policymakers are expected to continue rebalancing the economy toward domestic consumption and high-value industries such as green energy and digital technology. Many analysts forecast a moderation in growth to around 4.5 percent next year, reflecting structural adjustments and ongoing global uncertainty.
China’s 2025 performance shows an economy that remains robust in scale and adaptive in strategy, but also one facing the challenge of shifting from export-led support toward a more balanced and consumption-driven growth model.
