China’s dominant position in global critical minerals is under renewed scrutiny after the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) tightened cobalt exports. The move has triggered a sharp market squeeze, exposing structural weaknesses in Beijing’s strategy and highlighting China’s heavy reliance on imported raw materials.
Quota System Limits Supply
Congo, the world’s largest source of cobalt intermediates, suspended exports in February 2025 and later introduced a quota system. Fourth-quarter 2025 exports were capped at 18,125 metric tonnes, with a broader 2026 quota of 96,600 tonnes, including a 10% strategic reserve.
Delays meant almost no shipments in late 2025. Reported by Business Insider Africa, these restrictions have raised alarms about China’s dependency on foreign cobalt.
Prices Surge Amid Shortages
The export curbs sent refined cobalt prices surging on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange from $10 per pound in early 2025 to roughly $25 per pound, with particular stress on intermediates such as cobalt hydroxide. Chinese buyers tapped exchange inventories, withdrawing over 3,250 tonnes, about 37% of stocks, to bridge the gap.
Geopolitical Rivalries Intensify
The episode underscores China’s dependence on imports despite producing 78% of refined cobalt in 2024. Alternative suppliers, including Indonesia, cannot fully offset Congo’s restrictions.
Meanwhile, U.S. involvement in Central Africa is expanding, with strategic investments and infrastructure projects challenging Chinese-backed routes, signaling an escalating geopolitical contest over critical minerals.
