As economic and diplomatic frictions within the European Union deepen, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is actively seeking a closer political and strategic partnership with Italy, a pivot that highlights widening rifts among EU powers and reflects growing concerns over how to manage trade tensions with the United States and other global actors.
Merz, who has steered Germany toward a more assertive foreign and economic policy since taking office, has grown increasingly wary of relying solely on traditional Franco-German leadership to chart the bloc’s direction. In recent months, disagreements with French President Emmanuel Macron over trade policy and responses to U.S. trade pressure have sharpened, prompting Berlin to look for new allies within the EU. Italy, under Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, has emerged as one of the most important potential partners for Germany in navigating these turbulent geopolitical waters.
While France has tended to push for a robust, confrontational EU stance, including preparedness to counteract U.S. tariffs with its own measures, Germany has generally sought a more pragmatic approach, emphasizing dialogue and coordinated action that avoids escalation. This difference in tone has been particularly notable in how Paris and Berlin view the threats and opportunities posed by U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade policies.
Relations between the EU and the United States have been tense as Trump has repeatedly dangled the possibility of substantial tariffs on European goods. These tensions reached a crescendo with threats of steep levies on imports from several EU countries, a move that sent shockwaves through European markets and forced leaders in Brussels to weigh their strategic options.
Germany, whose economy is heavily export-oriented, felt particularly exposed. Chancellor Merz has publicly stressed the importance of managing the transatlantic relationship carefully, arguing that Europe must not rush to abandon ties with the U.S. even amid disagreements. At the World Economic Forum in Davos, he underlined the need to preserve the transatlantic alliance and avoid knee-jerk reactions, even as he acknowledged the seriousness of Trump’s trade threats. Meanwhile, the European Commission under Ursula von der Leyen has been navigating a delicate balance: preparing potential defensive measures from anti-coercion trade tools to broader tariff responses, while also seeking to keep channels of negotiation open with Washington. Within the EU Parliament and among member states, opinions are sharply divided on whether to adopt a hard line or pursue de-escalation.
Italy, under Meloni’s leadership, has taken a more conciliatory stance toward the United States compared with France’s approach. Rome has emphasised dialogue and negotiation rather than confrontation, urging Brussels to tread carefully and avoid actions that could intensify economic conflict. This has made Italy an attractive partner for Germany, which shares Berlin’s preference for pragmatism in dealing with U.S. trade pressure.
Beyond trade with the U.S., Germany and Italy have also aligned on broader concerns about the EU’s global competitiveness. Paris and Berlin alone cannot drive European policy, and recent joint policy efforts between Germany and Italy highlight how both governments see shared interest in strengthening the EU’s economic dynamism. For example, the two governments co-authored a policy paper warning that the EU could fall behind global competitors unless it undertakes sweeping reforms to cut bureaucracy, speed regulatory approvals, and deepen integration of markets within the bloc itself.
In these proposals, Berlin and Rome have called for steps such as simplifying internal trade rules, enhancing cooperation across energy and services sectors, and potentially reinvigorating free trade negotiations with external partners. These efforts reflect a shared belief that the EU’s internal economic architecture needs urgent modernization if it is to thrive in an increasingly competitive world, especially as the United States and China pursue their respective industrial and trade strategies.
The evolving German and Italian axis highlights a deeper strategic debate within Europe: whether to confront external partners like the U.S. and China head-on, or to manage relations through diplomacy and calibrated economic measures that protect European interests without detonating broader conflicts.
France has often championed a more assertive posture, championing defensive trade measures and rallying EU institutions to firm responses. Germany, by contrast, is keen to protect its export industries and prefers negotiation where possible. Italy’s stance, focusing on de-escalation and dialogue, aligns more closely with Berlin’s preferred path than with Paris’s. This has increased Rome’s clout in European decision-making and given Merz a valuable coalition partner as he seeks to shape EU policy.
The rise of a German-Italian axis does not mean that France will be sidelined. Paris remains one of the EU’s most influential capitals, and French leadership on issues such as climate, security, and defense continues to be significant. However, in the arena of trade policy and EU economic strategy, the alignment between Berlin and Rome signals a shift toward a more diversified leadership landscape — one in which Germany no longer assumes it must lead with France at its side.
As the EU prepares for key summits and ongoing discussions with the United States, how this new alignment plays out could have profound implications for the bloc’s internal cohesion and its role on the global stage. Tensions over trade are now a central driver of intra-EU politics, and the choices made by Merz, Meloni, and other leaders will shape European policy for years to come.
