According to the seasonal forecast, Rwanda is expected to receive between 300 and 1,000 millimetres of rainfall between September and December 2026, compared with the usual seasonal average of between 279 and 962 millimetres.
Meteo Rwanda Director General Aimable Gahigi said the expected increase in rainfall will be influenced by sea surface temperature patterns in the Pacific and Indian Oceans, which are expected to increase atmospheric moisture carried by winds toward the region.
The agency said rainfall is expected to be relatively low in September before increasing in the following months. The expected pattern could be comparable to the autumn rainy seasons experienced in 1997 and 2023.
Areas expected to receive the heaviest rainfall include Nyamasheke, western parts of Rutsiro and Karongi, western and southern parts of Nyamagabe and Nyaruguru, as well as eastern parts of Rusizi. These areas could receive between 800 and 1,000 millimetres.
Musanze and Gakenke, along with other parts of the Western Province, are expected to receive between 600 and 800 millimetres of rainfall.
Kigali and many other parts of the country are forecast to receive between 300 and 600 millimetres.
The autumn rains are expected to begin in some parts of Rwanda between September 15 and 22, particularly in Musanze, Burera, parts of Gakenke and Nyamagabe, as well as the Western Province.
Other parts of the country are expected to start receiving rainfall between September 22 and 29. In some areas of the Southern Province, Kigali and the Eastern Province, the rains are expected to begin between September 29 and October 6, 2026.
Meteo Rwanda has urged residents and relevant institutions to take preventive measures against the possible effects of heavy rainfall, including lightning, strong winds, hailstorms, flooding and landslides, particularly in mountainous and steep areas.
