Iran prepares for three possible paths as conflict continues

Iran has ordered authorities to prepare for three possible situations as the conflict with the United States and Israel continues: prolonged war, a ceasefire or an end to the fighting.
An ‘Emad’ ballistic missile is displayed during an annual rally marking the 1979 Islamic Revolution at Azadi Square

Iran’s military authorities have ordered institutions across the country to prepare for three possible outcomes of the ongoing conflict with the United States and Israel.

The nationwide directive covers preparations for continued fighting, a possible ceasefire and a full end to the war, according to Iranian state media. It was issued by Major General Ali Abdollahi, who heads Iran’s Permanent Passive Defence Committee.

If the war continues, authorities have been told to limit large public gatherings and focus on keeping essential services running. The plans also include managing resources, helping civilians and improving coordination between government agencies.

A temporary ceasefire would bring a different approach. Iranian authorities would continue preparing the public for possible threats while paying greater attention to information security and what the directive describes as hybrid warfare.

If the conflict comes to an end, Iran plans to return to wider public programmes, including training exercises and other activities that would have been suspended during the fighting.

The new instructions come as the conflict remains active. The United States and Israel launched major attacks on Iran on February 28, targeting government and military facilities, missile infrastructure and air defence systems. Iran responded with missile and drone attacks against Israel and US positions in the region.

The fighting has also raised concerns beyond Iran and Israel as the conflict spreads across the Middle East. Diplomatic efforts are continuing, but there is still uncertainty over when the hostilities could end.

Iran has issued similar defence preparations in previous years. However, the latest directive is different because it openly addresses three possible stages of the current conflict – war, a ceasefire and the period after fighting ends.

The preparations show that Tehran is planning for several possible developments rather than assuming the conflict will quickly come to an end.

Iranian Revolutionary Guard personnel display a ballistic missile during a rally in Tehran.

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